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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Collapse of internet network connection structure

version: 8 / updated: 2010-06-25
id: #836 / version id: #16
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Martin Fatun
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Martin Fatun
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 3 - ICT - Information & communication technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Pervasive and trusted network and service infrastructure

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
ECODE (223936)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Collapse of internet network connection structure

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Due to quickly growing demand for intenet bandwidth in combination with frequent and massive hacking attempts on the interet, the connection through the network will become highly unstable and unreliable. Practically no real time communication or data transfer will be possible. To overcome this deficiency, new technical solution of smart routing will be needed, which would be able to maintain quick, safe and reliable intenet connection among individual computers and serwers in flexible and dynamic way.

Keywords

ICT, internet, connection, network, instability, hacking, bandwidth

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Due to quickly growing demand for intenet bandwidth in combination with frequent and massive hacking attempts on the interet, the connection through the network will become highly unstable and unreliable.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Lack of reliable environmet for elecronic business and communication.
Feature 2: education and research environment
Lack of reliable environmet for communication, information dissemination and e-learning.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Lack or reliable electronic source of information, entertainment and e-commerce.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Destruction od existing communication infrastructure.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Weakening of globalisation, grows of local politics importance.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Lack of reliable environmetn for e-health applications, decrease of quality of life at all.
Feature 7: security and defence
Weekening of international cooperation, extension of the space for crime and terrorism.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		Growing demand for internet bandwidth; qrowing number and dangerousness of hacking attacks

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Slowdown of internt data trandfer, more freqent connecton failures.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

It will depend on our readiness for the Wild Card manifestation, whether the old internet will totally collapse or whether we wil be albe to transform it quickly (or even in advance) by means of a partial technological solution (smart routing system).

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Groeing demand for internet bandwidth
Values/Ethical/Cultural Growing ammount of hacking attempts

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Total collapse of internet

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Legislation against hacking attempts, support of development and implemantation of new robust and reliable internet infrastructure. Legislation against hacking attempts, support of development and implementation of new robust and reliable internet infrastructure.
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Development and implementation of new robust and reliable internet infrastructure.
Academic/Research sector Development of new robust and reliable internet infrastructure.
Media Public enlightenment

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Innovation dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Security
Research infrastructures
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Functional internet environment is essential for both of them.