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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Combine climate change with animal-borne diseases, and the long-term effects of changes in biodistribution and biodiversity

version: 5 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1919 / version id: #1919
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Paul CUNNINGHAM, The University of Manchester, interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Combine climate change with animal-borne diseases, and the long-term effects of changes in biodistribution and biodiversity

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
there are the makings of a perfect storm. Certain conditions could come together to cause a major health epidemic or something that affects a significant sector of the agricultural business, or agricultural dependency, e.g. a wheat disease that wipes out wheat crops. That is the long-term effect. You could link it back to the lack of public labs, where research in those areas is no longer supported because research has become more commercially led.

Keywords

biodiversity, climate change, biodistribution, environment, ecology, health

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Food security and diet
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.