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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Cysects attack

version: 1 / created: 2010-07-14
id: #905 / version id: #905
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 10 - Security

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Security and society

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
FESTOS (217993)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Cysects attack

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Terrorists or criminal organisation uses remote-controlled swarms of "cyborg insects" (insects with implanted electronics) to infect people and/or animals or agricultural crops with biochemical agents. Perpetrators could be also a criminal agricultural company interested in disrupting the agriculture of competitors. Such "cysects" may also interfere with the natural biosphere and damage it.

Keywords

security, terrorism, crime, threat, cyborg, biocybernetic, biological warfare

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Attack by swarms of remotely-controlled cyborg insects against people or agriculture.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Disruption of agriculture, economy
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Panic, loss of trust
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
R&D of "anti cysect" technologies
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Disruption, panic
Feature 7: security and defence
New forms af terrorism/warfare

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Research on "cyborg insects"

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Crime and terrorism
Diseases, health and well-being
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Food security and diet
Social pathologies & ethics
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.