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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Defragmentation within the European Commission

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1889 / version id: #1889
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Karl Heinz LEITNER, Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Defragmentation within the European Commission

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
We will have more strong national countries within Europe and less power from the Commission, which would have many impacts on the European Research Area, innovation policy etc. We will have a Europe at two speeds – some countries that are speeding up and doing well and others doing less well. That is all related to the future of Europe and a common European Union. You could also see more political problems, debates within Europe on the political agenda and harmonization process. Probably some countries will leave the European Union. They could say that the cost benefit and what they gain are not worth the opportunities and risks. The original idea of the European Research Area will be on ice, as well as how markets are regulated and the common market. That is what I could envisage at the political level.

Keywords

globalisation, political reforms, conflict, economy transformation

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Education dynamics
Food security and diet
Governance and trust in democracy
Social cohesion and diversity
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Innovation dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.