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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Further catastrophic events

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1903 / version id: #1903
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Neil Mundy, Ellingham Associates, interviewed by RTC North

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Further catastrophic events

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
This could include events like Oil spills, major earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, nuclear events, forest fires or pandemics. These would have differing effects from serious flooding of coastal cities and seaboards due to earthquakes triggering tsunamis, maybe the grounding of aircraft due to volcanoes, and further marine and other wildlife may be destroyed by environmental disasters. Improved forecasting would help with this as well as developing advanced technologies to analyse data. Further developments could be made around industrial biotechnology solutions for waste and toxic material elimination.

Keywords

natural disaster,pollution, ecological disasters, nuclear disasters, flooding

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Further catastrophic events like Oil spills, disruption of the Internet, major earthquake, tsunami, nuclear events, forest fires, pandemics. Globally transmitted diseases of plants, trees and wildlife.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Food security and diet
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.