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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » EU civil society prediction on the harm of biofuels to economy and environment is proven to be right

version: 1 / created: 2009-10-25
id: #208 / version id: #208
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Yanuar Nugroho
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Yanuar Nugroho
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 6 - Environment (including Climate Change)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Forecasting methods and assessment tools for sustainable development taking into account differing scales of observation

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
CSOCONTRIBUTION2SCP (212457) CSS (212269)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

EU civil society prediction on the harm of biofuels to economy and environment is proven to be right

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) have long voiced concern about the harm that biofuels can do to both economy and environment. However these warnings were neglected due to the low credibility of CSO research. A series of research funded by EU have involved CSOs not only as audiences but also as active researchers. In recent research in biofuels where now CSOs can have a full access to the technology, shocking results were revealed: biofules turn out to be not so economically feasible and they cause more harm than good to the environment in the long run. This revelation has already caused massive change in the biofuels development with bio-tech companies denying the result and government looking to have no idea what to do. What will make this Wild Card interesting? It would invert established assumptions Other sources and additional information: http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=FP7_PROJ_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=1&CAT=PROJ&QUERY=01215ef28bd6:8a44:125f2608&RCN=88554 http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=FP7_PROJ_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=15&CAT=PROJ&QUERY=01215ecd0619:dda2:7e126852&RCN=89145

Keywords

civil society, biofuels

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

economic filters (business/market interests) + scientific filters (knowledge/technology access): * biofuel being controlled by big companies * biofuel has been believed to be THE solution for the energy crisis Probably pervasive (contagious or transmittable): the impact can and will be global Change in stakeholders relations/influence + Transformation of the system: * significant increase on the role of CSO in representing non-state, non-business societal constituence * transformation of economy which already started to depend on biofuels which may trigger technology to address the problem and find other solution (solar, wind, hydrogen, electric, etc.)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social increasing role of civil society in development
Technological/Scientific slow development of biofuels
Economic fuel price hike
Environmental land conversion
Political increasing importance of the role of CSO

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology questions about all assumption of biofuels benefit
Energy need to find another alternative for energy source
Environment (including Climate Change) questions about all assumption of biofuels benefit to the environment

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example. Positive. 2014-2020
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology Positive. 2014-2020