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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other » Gas from Trash

version: 2 / updated: 2011-02-08
id: #1625 / version id: #1542
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Jari Kaivo-oja
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Maurizio Sajeva
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Other, please specify:   Scientific American

The source of the Wild Card is

Scientific American. December 2010. 10 World Changing Ideas.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Gas from Trash

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
It is going to be possible to change our waste management by modified microbes which eat waste and “secrete” fuel. Our future may be changed by genetically modified fuel factories, which are fed with the sun energy.

Keywords

waste management, microbes, genetically modified fuel factories, sun energy, sustainable development

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

The future of factories, which make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, can be different. In the future they may be microscopic, and they might run on the garbage hydrocarbons that are all around us.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2015

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
New energy production system would emerge if this ideas is implemented. Old business models and characters of industrial factories would change to be microscopic.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
In this kind of system modified microbes eat waste and "secrete" fuel.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Changes power structures of fossil fuel industry.
Feature 7: security and defence
Many considerable risk are included to this industrial model. Especially complications of engineered organisms may cause environmental risks.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces 		Changes infrastructures dramatically to microscopic.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country End of oil era
Level 2: important for a particular world region End of oil era
Level 3: important for the European Union End of oil era
Level 4: important for the whole world End of oil era

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

A lot of research activities are going on everywhere in the world. In September 2010, Joule Unlimited a biotechnology start-up in Cambrdige, Mass won a patent for a gene-altered bacterium that uses sunlight and carbon dioxide to create components of diesel fuel. Another strategy is to use sugars. With a few more tweaks to the genome, the fuel in our tanks could even come from sugars pried from the scrap heap.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Comments

Disruptive change may be observed.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Biotechnology developments
Economic Cheaper fuels are neeed
Environmental Biotechnology developments

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks associated with engineered organisms New energy supply system
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks associated with engineered organisms New energy supply system
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks associated with engineered organisms New energy supply system
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks associated with engineered organisms New energy supply system

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Active research and security research/Risk management Active research and security research/Risk management Active research and security research/Risk management Active research and security research/Risk management Active research and security research/Risk management Active research and security research/Risk management
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Active research and security research/Risk management Active research and security research/Risk management
Academic/Research sector Active research and security research/Risk management Active research and security research/Risk management
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) Informing citizens Informing citizens
Media Informing citizens Informing citizens
General public Informing citizens Informing citizens

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics New microscopic energy system
Techno-security, hazard & risk Risks associated with engineered organism
Sustainability and climate change New microscopic energy system

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology Biotechnology combined to energy production technology
Energy Biotechnology combined to energy production technology
Security Risks associated with engineered organisms

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer Biotechnology combined to energy production technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Risk management questions

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
This idea could help the EU to combine waste management strategies to the development of nivel microscopic energy supply systems.