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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: scientists/researchers » Global warming is not anthropogenic

version: 4 / updated: 2011-02-23
id: #1673 / version id: #1210
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Scientists/researchers (incl. reports, plans and statements)

The source of the Wild Card is

http://www.springerlink.com/content/y251268763812301/

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Global warming is not anthropogenic

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Scientists prove that the global warming is NOT anthropogenic, but related to changing solar activity or other newly discovered phenomena in space

Keywords

space, climate change, climate change models, anthropogenic, solar

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Scientists prove that the global warming is NOT anthropogenic, but related to changing solar activity or other phenomena in space

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Advanced models of climate change.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		New environmental policy and regulations.
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Appropriate mitigation of climate change effects.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Academic/Research sector New research directions of climate change

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Space
Science in society
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.