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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Governmental Weather Control

version: 4 / updated: 2010-10-29
id: #996 / version id: #88
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

IDEAS: Interdisciplinary

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Governmental Weather Control

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
New forecast and manipulation systems allow to control the weather. The weather planning system is used by governments to improve e.g. agriculture, but also misused: the era of "weather wars" between states arrives.

Keywords

forecast system, weather forecast, weather planning, weather war, weather control

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
The commercial utilisation of methods to manipulate and control the weather, particularly on agriculture, might lead to an enormous decline of prices for fruits and vegetables, which had only been available in specific seasons and at a high price before.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
The possibility to manipulate the weather might be used as a political instrument to enforce certain strategic interests and to threaten other states.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		The Chinese government already used to manipulate the weather, particularly during the Olympic Games.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Currently there are some research activities dealing with this issue. Additionally, the Chinese government has proven that weather manipulation is already possible on a small scale today. Last but not least, a number of studies and scientific literature deals with the possibility of "weather wars".

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Economic Companies of the food industry might have a strong interest in the manipulation of weather, particularly regarding agriculture and the cultivation of specific vegetables and fruits.
Values/Ethical/Cultural The manipulation of weather might actually enable the nutrition of a growing share of the world population.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		New technologies of weather manipulation might entail the risk to abuse them in order to enforce geo-strategic interests.
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Frequent usage of weather manipulation might lead to irreversible damages to biodiversity and ecosystems.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) The UN might convene frequent roundtable meetings in order to discuss possible risks and opportunities of weather manipulation.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Food security and diet
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Urban and rural dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security
Regional development

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.