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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Governments have access to unique knowledge and resources for creating new viruses

version: 6 / updated: 2015-06-03
id: #1992 / version id: #1137
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Jwahyun Kim
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

CAPACITIES: Infrastructures

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Support to existing research infrastructures

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
EVA

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Governments have access to unique knowledge and resources for creating new viruses

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Global databases of every known virus are made public. Governments sieze this opportunity to further develop these as biological weapons of mass destruction.

Keywords

Global database, Governmentsm Virus, Disease, Biological weapons, mass destruction

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Global databases of every known virus are made public. Governments sieze this opportunity to further develop these as biological weapons of mass destruction.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
The pharmaceutical industry would boost research and development on new vaccines.
Feature 2: education and research environment
Remote education and teleworking would become the norm.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
People would be stockpiling basic goods and become more conscious about the need to buy essential food products and other items.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
ICT, virtual reality and autonomous systems for remote work would be on high demand.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
New socio-economic policies would need to be formulated and implemented to respond to the uncertainties and disruption created by such viruses.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
New health and safety regulations and measures would be enforced to contain and manage such viruses.
Feature 7: security and defence
The military and civil protection groups would play an important role in managing migration and other challenges related to free movement of people.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		Open access to databases.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Wikileaks.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Diseases, health and well-being
Education dynamics
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Security

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal