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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: NGOs » $ hyperinflation

version: 1 / created: 2010-06-20
id: #815 / version id: #815
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: gaudin thierry
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: gaudin thierry
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Non-for-profit organisations (NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations)

The source of the Wild Card is

My analysis of the current financial crisis

Headline

(max. 9 words)

$ hyperinflation

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
US government and Fed being unable to resist the pression of the american citizens accept to allow the emission of trillions of $, generating a hyperinflation comparable to the one that occurred in Germany after WW1. The international trust in the $ collapses ; a blooming creation of complementary currencies through Internet revitalizes local economies and autonomies, while international heteronomy declines sharply.

Keywords

world hyperinflation, $, complementary currencies

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

see supra

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
small firms
Feature 2: education and research environment
know how rather than knowledge
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
less consumption, local markets, self sustainable life styles
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Internet
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
declining
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Better, due to decline of overconsumption
Feature 7: security and defence
against mafias primarily

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example) 		other hyperinflations

Historical parallels

German hyperinflation after WW1

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world collapse of the present monetary standard

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

price of gold

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Comments

collapse of money, due to the collapse of the public's confidence

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social distrust of the public regarding the economic system poverty
Technological/Scientific Internet money transfer through telecom
Economic uncontrolled money creation by banks rise of energy and raw materials prices
Environmental resources saving energy shortage
Political unability to control bank behaviour weakness and corruption of most nation states
Values/Ethical/Cultural collapse of business ethics search for new values by the public

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		local extreme poverty in cities raise of solidarity behaviours
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Shrinking cities care for local economy
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		conflicts due to pre-revolutionary situations opportunity for keynesian investment in infrastructures
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		multiplication of genocides Change in the education system

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) IMF creating a world currency and control of economic policies of the € member states creation of a far east (China, Japan, Korea...) currency Control of world economic policies, enforcement of transparency, elimination of shelters reindustrialization by local sme's better and coordinated management of public procureements
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Reinforce links with customers and providers (ex WIR in Switzerland) Built reliable netwoks through Internet
Academic/Research sector Abandon training in mathematics for finance ; start teaching basic know how for survival reshape knowledge accumulation aimed at local economies close to nature
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) accept the idea of a discipline imposed to the economy promote adapted infrastructures for the new way of life
Media alert the public on the magnitude of change Become independant of the advertisement system
General public accept various forms of currencies reorganize daily life on local self sufficiency

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change consumption limited by self sufficiency
Crime and terrorism poverty generates maffia power
Diseases, health and well-being poverty will increase diseases
Governance and trust in democracy distrust is to be expected
Social pathologies & ethics Rising power of mafias
Social exclusion & poverty poverty will be increased by monetary crisis
Social cohesion and diversity social tensions and renewal of solidarity are to be expected
Work-Life balance and mental health distrust to present employment patterns, suicides
Energy security/dynamics energy is an international market, affected by monetary fluctuations
Economic prosperity/dynamics not growth is to be expected but "degrowth"
Globalization vs. localization self sustainability leads to localization
Innovation dynamics re-learning of basic know how
Urban and rural dynamics movement to the countryside

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology rebirth of small farms
ICT - Information & communication technologies the new infrastructure to rebuilt cohesion
Security weakening and distrust of existing powers
Regional development boosted in a second stage
Research for the benefit of small & medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) revival of small firms working for local needs

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology local needs will need global cooperation to make appropriate knowledge accessible

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens) 		stimulated by local needs

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Assumes a complete redefinition of academic disciplines and of teaching practices