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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: business » "Immortality" through mind transfer to computing substrate

version: 14 / updated: 2013-11-27
id: #1987 / version id: #1987
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Miriam Leis
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Last changed by: Miriam Leis
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submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Business groups/individuals (incl. reports, plans and statements)

The source of the Wild Card is

2045 Initiative - Avatar Project

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
Description of Avatar 2045 Initiative at GF2045 Congress document 11073540 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

"Immortality" through mind transfer to computing substrate

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Advances in neuroscience and computer technology may enable the emulation of whole individual human brains on a computer (or future equivalent). Curent research like the FET-Flagshio "Human Brain" project indicate a potential direction and inspiration for such ambitions.

Keywords

Brain emulation, neuroscience, computer science

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Advances in neuroscience and computer technology may enable the emulation of whole individual human brains on a computer (or future equivalent). Curent research like the FET-Flagshio "Human Brain" project indicate a potential direction and inspiration for such ambitions.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
The Avatar 2045 project is currently happaning outside the conventional R&D framework funded and supported by private billionaire investors, esp. from Russia.
Feature 2: education and research environment
Current interest in neuroscience which is also publicly funded (e.g. "Human Brain Project" of FET-Flagship) encourage R&D ideas like "Avatar 2045". In the progress of further R&D, new insights in neuroscience (e.g. brain imaging and simulation methods) and innovations in neurotechnologies (e.g. BCI) may result.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
If individual brain emulations are possible, this certainly will impact the lifestyle as well as outlook towards life (and death) in individuals. Also new ethical concerns may arise as well as possible societal unrest about the idea.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
From a technological side the ambitions and challenges of the "Avatar 2045" project are extremely high, but further proress in computing technology (cheaper and more powerful chips, "Moore" and "Beyond Moore") may contribute to progress. Relevant technologies include brain imaging, simulation, computational innovations as well as energy-efficient computing and new forms of computer types, architectures, software etc. (e.g. bionic concepts).
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
New legal and ethical questions will certainly arise, even if only a partial emulation of human brains may be achieved (personality rights, rights of non-human sentient entities and the definition of life and death (information-theoretical concept of death?) etc.). Currently politics (except the Russian president and the Dalai Lama) do not seem to pay much attention to the ideas of "Avatar 2045".
Feature 6: health and quality of life
As the final vision also comes with a robotic or artificial body, R&D on way to the envisioned goal may lead to medical innovations, e.g. in prosthetics.
Feature 7: security and defence
Security issues will play an important role, incl. potential safety issues. On way to the potential realisation of the idea, defence (or dual-use) applications like e.g. Augmented Reality, HET or "Neurohacking" may be taken onto a new level through possible research results.

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		"Carbon Copies", "Mind Uploading", "Artificial General Intelligence", Brain Simulation, Life Extension, Cryonics

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world Depends on the access to the resulting technologies.

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

"Human Brain Project", China financing research on "Artificial General Intelligence", various R&D and fundraising activities related to brain simulation (e.g. "Carbon Copies"), increase in computing power, societal need to neuroscience-solutions in general (demographic change), Transhumanism, welathy entrepreneurs funding "fringe" science projects (e.g. google funding "immortality biotech project") etc.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
social filters (class, status, education level)
other, please specify:   the idea seems too absurd to be taken seriiously

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Intereste in curing neuro-related diseases increases funding for neuroscience- and technolology Tech-Subcultures
Technological/Scientific Increase in comouting power, new computing architectures Need to tackle "Big Data" problems
Economic Private funding
Political Political desinterest with many Political interest of a few (esp. Russia)
Values/Ethical/Cultural Cultural mivements like transhumanism

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Access to the technology Access to the technology
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Legal lags and uncertainties
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		"Digital Immortality" "Digital Immortality"

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Ban all R&D related to neuroscience and neurotechnology and prohibit richt people to privately fund R&D Destroy computers?

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Diseases, health and well-being I guess disease won't be simulated
Education dynamics
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Food security and diet no food required.
Governance and trust in democracy Access to technology
Social pathologies & ethics Immortality
Social exclusion & poverty Access to technology
Energy security/dynamics Energy efficiency of computing required!
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change Do we need an environment if we are simulated/emulated?

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology No food needed
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Transport (including aeronautics) Not neded
Science in society ELSI