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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: workshops/meetings » Individual Nano-Enabled Safety Capsule

version: 1 / created: 2010-08-03
id: #934 / version id: #934
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Sivert von Saldern
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Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Workshops/Meetings

iKnow workshop country name

Germany

Workshop date

May 2010

The source of the Wild Card is

Discussion on wild cards in the science fiction working group.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Individual Nano-Enabled Safety Capsule

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A new kind of nano-tech based “textiles” that become very stiff and tremendously strong when hit are used in protective suits. Anybody wearing such a suit could be shot, hit by a car, fall of a bridge etc. without getting hurt. The demand for body protection is particularly high in the context of military and homeland security, in heavy industry, personal transport, extreme sports and geriatric care. The breakthrough of an ultraprotective textile may be expected in the defence industry and is likely to spread to the other sectors soon after.

Keywords

Safety, Security, Nano, Capsule, Nano-enable safety capsule

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

A new kind of nano-tech based “textiles” that become very stiff and tremendously strong when hit are used in protective suits.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
When politicians decide to restrict the access to this kind of passive armament, the emergence of a black market for safety suits is likely.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
The invention of individual safety suits might lead to a massive rise of the extreme sports sector and eventually a more risk-taking society (“more risk, more fun”).
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Protective textiles for very old people, the fastest growing population segment in Europe, seem quite likely. Special health insurance fees for old and young people wearing a safety suit are imaginable. Also, in public and individual transport the gap between safe and unsafe travellers may rise. Protective suits might be free in airplanes’ first class departments only and lead to an increased survival probability in case of a crash. Concerning road traffic, the consequences might be similar to the safety belt. When it became obligatory, the number of traffic deaths increased because people changed their driving behaviour. However, in the case of relatively expensive safety suits the gap will not rise between car drivers and pedestrians, but between rich car drivers and pedestrians on the one side and poor car drivers and pedestrians on the other.
Feature 7: security and defence
. It is highly probable that these suits will be very expensive, leading to a dual safety gap within and between societies with, both, positive and negative consequences. High-tech soldiers from OECD countries might be better protected in military conflicts. The same applies for policemen in the context of petty crime, which, over the years, has become more brutal. However, organised crime, being more capital intensive, “profitable” and long-term oriented, is likely to catch up with the improved safety equipment of the police, and their arms race might be complemented by a “shield” race. In the end, possibly only the collateral damage will increase.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Behavioural change
Crime and terrorism
Diseases, health and well-being
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Social pathologies & ethics
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Transport (including aeronautics)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.