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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

version: 4 / updated: 2009-12-18
id: #622 / version id: #120
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Martin Fatun
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Martin Fatun
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 3 - ICT - Information & communication technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Pervasive and trusted network and service infrastructure

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
OPEN project (ID: 216552) - http://www.ict-open.eu/ PERSIST project (ID: 215098) - http://www.ict-persist.eu/ POF-PLUS project (ID: 224521) - http://www.ict-pof-plus.eu/ SM4ALL project (ID: 224332) - http://www.sm4all-project.eu/ PECES project (ID: 224342) - http://217.172.70.218:90/ MY-E-DIRECTOR 2012 project (ID: 215248) - http://www.myedirector2012.eu/ ADAMANTIUM project (ID: 214751) - http://www.ict-adamantium.eu/ 3D4YOU project (ID: 215075) - http://www.3d4you.eu/ TA2 project (ID: 214793) - http://www.ta2-project.eu/ NAPA-WINE project (ID: 214412) - http://www.napa-wine.eu/

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Information crisis caused by personalized information delivery

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Development of smart internet media technologies, which enable targeted supply of information to individual users according to their expressed preferences and unexpressed patterns of behaviour, together with development of pervasive personal smart space technologies, which are able to provide any user with his personalized information environment independently of time, space and at the moment used hardware or software platform, created the virtual world where each user has only the information which he wants to get – or in worse case which somebody else wishes to supply him. By means of purposefully slipped disinformation the hackers and lobbyists are able to influence big groups of users and to cause serious misunderstanding and conflicts in the society with pervasive impact.

Keywords

information, crisis, pervasive computing, ubiquitous computing, internet, information supply, ICT

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Smart internet media enable targeted supply of information to individual users. This may be easily misused to isolate the user in a virtual world of incomplete or false information.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Information restriction and disinformation is used for marketing and advertisement purposes. As well it may be used by lobbing in favour of particular business interests (building of new plants, eco-unfriendly mining of raw material etc.).
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Information restriction and disinformation is used for marketing and advertisement purposes. The goal is to affect lifestyle of a big group of people in accordance with interests of the attacker (e.g. a sect leader has interest to fleece a big group of misinformed believers out of money).
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Advantages of a new technology may be held back by suppliers of an older technology in accordance with their economic interest.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Information restriction and disinformation is used in accordance with interest of political parties in influencing electors. As well it may be used by groups of terrorists to gain support for their terrorist activities.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
It may be of interest of a pharmaceutical company to excessively stress or on the contrary cancel some effects of a drug or treatment.
Feature 7: security and defence
Information restriction and disinformation is used to jeopardize the EU cohesiveness and cooperation. Serious conflicts may occur at national and international level.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union The situation could be particularly dangerous for European cohesiveness and cooperation not only in R&D, but in many different fields as well (e.g. security, business or collective defence). Other conflicts could occur at national level (e.g. ethnic, social or cultural conflicts) and at international level (e.g. international crisis and wars). If the wild card sets up, the impact would be pervasive with serious, far-reaching effects.
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

The European Commission has been funding a number of research projects on so-called pervasive or ubiquitous computing, e.g. OPEN, PERSIST, POF-PLUS, SM4ALL and PECES, and on spreading of electronic media, e.g. MY-E-DIRECTOR 2012, ADAMANTIUM, 3D4YOU, TA2 and NAPA-WINE. As well, the contemporary crisis of printed newspapers and journals witnesses to the change of information consumers attitude to the media utilization. Nevertheless, in the new internet media it is often almost impossible to verify the truth of provided information.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Comments

• Latent phase: The development towards the wild card manifestation has two main technological drivers. The first one is the development of smart media internet technologies, which enable targeted supply of information to individual users according to their expressed preferences and unexpressed patterns of behaviour. This process is undoubtedly under way, but its possible negative consequences may be hidden for the sake of business interests of information/media providers and internet service providers. The second technological driver is development of pervasive personal smart space technologies, which are able to provide any user with his personalized information environment independently of time, space and at the moment used hardware or software platform. Here it is still necessary to cover a relatively long way to fulfil this goal, but the technological development is going quickly ahead. • Manifestation phase: As soon as the technology enables users to isolate themselves in a virtual world where each of them may have only the information which he wants to get, without effective preventive measures it will be easy to misuse this situation. E.g. suddenly it could emerge that a sect fleeced big group of misinformed users out of money or that a terrorist misused someone else to perform a crime activity. The manifestation of the wild card will be pervasive and it will require reaction at the level of EC and national governments. • After-effect phase: If the wild card arises, the life will become more dangerous for everybody. The European cohesiveness and cooperation may be endangered - not only in R&D, but in many different fields, e.g. security, business or collective defence. Other conflicts could occur at national level, e.g. ethnic, social or cultural conflicts, and at international level, e.g. international crisis and wars. Total collapse of the society and states could be possible.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Change in attitude of users to the media and information resources. Media consumers are enchanted by the idea that everybody can be an internet journalist (i.e. blogger) today, but they underestimate the possibility of spreading confusing information from unreliable resources.
Technological/Scientific Development of smart media internet technologies and pervasive personal internet smart space technologies. The potential technological trigger could be e.g. successful market release of a new open source software platform MUDDLE (Multimedia Universal Digital Data Laboratory Environment) with integrated backdoors for comfortable access to hackers into the system.
Economic On one side the media and information providers try to find new business models and new ways of maximizing their incomes and on the other side users try to minimize costs of required information. The potential economic trigger could be e.g. a new business model of provisioning of not verified information for free and verified information for money.
Political Business lobbying for legislation supporting new models of dealing information; the effort of politicians to gain supervision of information streams; exaggerated political activities on protection of privacy; exaggerated political activities on protection of free trade. The potential politic trigger could be e.g. new legislation act riding information providers of the responsibility for veracity of the information.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		The wild cards could lead to serious harms caused to individuals or groups of people (financial looses, unintentional action – maybe even illegal - to the benefit of somebody else), and as well it could lead to the growth of tensions (e.g. racial or cultural) in the society.
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The intentional disinformation may lead to ethnic, social or cultural conflicts at national level, and to international crisis and wars. Disintegration of EU structures in R&D, security, business, collective defence and other fields is possible.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) • EC and national governments should support research at international and national level oriented towards secure internet media distribution technologies. • EC and national governments should adopt laws protecting internet users from spreading the intentional disinformation. • EC and national governments should support research at international and national level oriented towards secure internet media distribution technologies. • EC and national governments should adopt laws protecting internet users from spreading the intentional disinformation. • All the accessible security technologies should be immediately applied to stop the intentional disinformation of internet users. EC and national governments should encourage internet providers to do it through appropriate legislation. Police should be able to take quick and resolute action against disseminators of intentional disinformation. • All the accessible security technologies should be immediately applied to stop the intentional disinformation of internet users. EC and national governments should encourage internet providers to do it through appropriate legislation. Police should be able to take quick and resolute action against disseminators of intentional disinformation.
Media • Internet media and information providers should create and accept the code of “fair information distribution”. Media should systematically and continuously warn users against possible attempts of disinformation. • Extensive public awareness campaign should be stated in cooperation of governments and media against every expected disinformation attempts.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Crime and terrorism The information crisis will reduce transparency and it will contribute to the growth of crime activities.
Governance and trust in democracy The information crisis will decrease credibility of governments. It may lead to crisis of political system and subsequently to destabilization of democracy.
Social cohesion and diversity The information crisis may strengthen close family relationships and family values, and on the contrary weaken wider social relationships.

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies The ICT research is playing a crucial part in creating preconditions for arising of the wild card. It holds especially for further research areas (all of them covered by the challenge Pervasive and trust network and service infrastructure): • Service and Software Architectures, Infrastructures and Engineering • Network embedded and control systems • Networked media Therefore primarily in these research areas the security aspects of developed technologies should be carefully evaluated and the measures for security strengthening should be applied.
Social Sciences and Humanities
Space
Science in society
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal 		Knowledge sharing and research cooperation at international level may help to ensure desired level of security of developed technologies.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		close cooperation between researchers and policy makers can lead to successful prevention or solution of fundamental problems related to social, cultural or ethnic issues in European and international context.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
The potential information crisis is a serious issue which should be addressed by future R&D and STI policies at national and EU level. The policies should support all the preventive and subsequent measures mentioned above.