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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: workshops/meetings » Invisibilty spray available in high street stores

version: 5 / updated: 2011-02-04
id: #1577 / version id: #1021
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
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Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Workshops/Meetings

iKnow workshop country name

United Kingdom

Workshop date

February 2010

The source of the Wild Card is

UK workshop - Nanotechnology Group

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Invisibilty spray available in high street stores

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
An invisibility spray is developed and the technology refined until it becomes available in most retail outlets and is affordable for the general public. Initially, this is seen as fun, however there are strong implications for security and the military as applications for warfare are exploited.

Keywords

Invisibility, nanotechnology, Security, Military, Public, Spray, retail store

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

An invisibility spray is developed and the technology refined until it becomes available in most retail outlets and is affordable for the general public. Initially, this is seen as fun, however there are strong implications for security and the milit

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
- Fashion goes out of fashion (fashion industry almost obselete) - Aerosol manufacturers monopolise the market
Feature 2: education and research environment
- A need for new communication may be required (whilst being invisible) - Research required on 'visibility' sprays
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
- Social cues of 'body beautiful' are removed
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
- Thousands of cameras/CCTV security systems become obselete
Feature 6: health and quality of life
- Overuse could cause health problems
Feature 7: security and defence
- Security systems require radical change - Invisible soldiers bring new angle to warfare (and crime)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		New technology available

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world Criminal behaviour increases exponentaially as the chances of being caught are dramatically reduced

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

UK is currently developing a "Harry Potter Style" invisibility cloak

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Comments

Law and order may fall as people will see the opportunity to commit a crime and avoid being caught, could lead to widespread panic and and an end to the rule of law

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social People would initially see this as a fun technology.
Economic Industry would wish to develop this technology for profit
Political Governments would desire this technology for intelligence purposes

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		increase in crime, reduction in successful arrests and prosecutions For covert surveillance by governments / law enforcement agencies
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Eventual collapse of the rule of law

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Restrict the sale / ownership of this technolgy
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Sell the technology responsibly Stop producing this technology

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Crime and terrorism This technology could cause the justice system as we know it to collapse
Ethics and abuse of S&T this technology could be used for criminal purposes

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Security Institutions would be very vulnerable to attack by individuals using this technology

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Could stop dangerous technology from being created / developed inthe first place

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
This technology could be used for criminal purposes This technology could cause the justice system as we know it to collapse Institutions would be very vulnerable to attack by individuals using this technology Could stop dangerous technology from being created / developed in the first place.