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Analysis Back

Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: NGOs » Israel and Palestine join the EU

version: 1 / created: 2010-04-12
id: #779 / version id: #779
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Non-for-profit organisations (NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations)

The source of the Wild Card is

http://atlantic-community.org/index/Open_Think_Tank_Article/EU_Expansion_to_Israel_and_Palestine

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Israel and Palestine join the EU

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
European leaders become heavily involved in the Midlle East peace process. As an incentive they propose to open negotiations with Israel and the forthcomimg independent Palestinian state about accession of both Israel and Palestine into the EU. This is indeed realised after the establishment of the Palestinian state.

Keywords

Security, peace, EU, conflict, Middle East

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

As an incentive for peace EU leaders propose accession of both Israel and the newndependent Palestinian state into the EU. The idea is supported by most Israelis and Palestinians. Both countries join the EU after short and effective negotiations.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Peace in the Middle East
Feature 7: security and defence
Less tensions, less conflicts.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Historical parallels

Accession of a former Yugoslavia country

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

The idea was suggested in several articles, and was mentioned by political leaders. Many Israelis and some Palestinians alreday have EU citizenship.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Political Desire for peaceful solution
Values/Ethical/Cultural Desire for peaceful solution

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Peace and prosperity in the Mideast. Less conflicts in the world

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Deep involvement in the Mideast peace process.
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) Prompting the leaders to act
General public Prompting the leaders to act

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Coexistence and conflicts Solving persistent security problems
Crime and terrorism
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Water security/vulnerability prevebtion of water conflicts

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Security Obvious
Regional development Development in the Mideast

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers. Joint involvement of Israeli & Palestinian researchers in EU resarch activities
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.