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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: RTOs » Large NEO (near earth object) hits Europe

version: 1 / created: 2010-12-06
id: #1207 / version id: #1207
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Research and technology organisations (incl. universities)

The source of the Wild Card is

NASA: http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/intro_faq.cfm

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Large NEO (near earth object) hits Europe

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A near earth object (asteroid or comet) about 1 Km in size hits Europe, causing a major disaster on a regional or global scale (depending on the actual size of the object)

Keywords

space, asteroid, disasters, comet, hazard, cosmic impact

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

A near earth object (asteroid or comet) about 1 Km in size hits Europe, causing a major disaster.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Historical parallels

In 1908 a relatively small object hit Siberia and devastated a large area of forests. A huge object probably caused the extinction of dinosaurs 60 million years ago.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Space
Security
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.