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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Major EU state elects neo fascist leader

version: 4 / updated: 2010-12-05
id: #1195 / version id: #311
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 8 - Socio-economic Sciences and the Humanities

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Conflicts, peace and human rights

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
CRIC, INFOCON

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
iKNOW Policy Brief 001 - Major EU state elects neo fascist leader document 356091 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Major EU state elects neo fascist leader

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The existence of political parties with far-right agendas is not a new feature in European politics. So what is really ‘wild’ or surprising in this event is the achievement of sufficient political dominance for a major EU state to elect a neo fascist or anti-Islam leader through, for example, national coalitions or major support of other far-right parties in Europe. Furthermore, potential collaborations between far-right forces, fundamentalists groups and extreme nationalist parties could also extend the far-right influence more globally. Ultimately, such extreme nationalist feelings could eventually break up fundamental European values and ideals such as the need for social cohesion and social inclusion, thus generating a climate of uncertainty and lack of consensus on the democratic constitution of European societies. Another wild factor of this event is the general public’s lack of understanding of how recent crises (such as the financial, housing and global humanitarian crises) have been caused or fuelled by right wing and laissez-faire policies. In other words, it would be surprising and ironic for the electorate to support far-right parties when the very same right wing way of thinking is largely responsible for the socio-economic challenges that Europe and the world are currently facing. Consequently, a very significant shift in long established patterns of voting and behaviour across many EU countries would be perceived as major wild feature of this wild card. Finally, an atmosphere of extreme philosophy, policy and political intolerance would possibly lead to the differentiation between first, second and third class citizens.

Keywords

democracy, far-right, fascism, media, migration, nationalism, politics, racism

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Current socio-economic challenges in Europe are creating the conditions for far-right parties to make major gains in the European political arena. These developments could create the conditions for a major EU state electing a neo fascist leader.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Historical parallels

Several "historical parallels" could be associated to this wild card. Among these are: the Italian Fascism lead by Benito Mussolini; the German Nazism lead by Adolf Hitler; the Iron Guard movement in Romania lead by Corneliu Zelea Codreanu; Falangism movement in Spain lead by José Antonio Primo de Rivera; the Fatherland Front movement in Austria lead by Engelbert Dollfuß; the government of Augusto Pinochet in Chile; etc.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country Netherlands, Belgium, France, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, UK
Level 3: important for the European Union

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

There are several signals or observables warning us about the probability of occurrence of such a wild card. Some of these are related the political environment, for example: the domination of right wing parties in the last elections to the European parliament; the break away from mainstream parties to far right; the political momentum gained by the recently created Alliance of European National Movements (AENM), which up to now brings together far-right parties in nine countries (Belgium, France, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine and the UK); and the power gained by far-right parties in recent elections in terms of new Members of the European Parliament (MEP) with 3 MEP for the French National Front (FN), 3 for the Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) and 2 for the British National Party (BNP). Intimately linked to these political signals, we can see major achievements in terms of corporate media coverage (e.g. the BNP leader was able to reach more people after his appearance in BBC's main current-affairs debate programme Question Time) and the growing number of alternative media, blogs, tabloid press and newspapers endorsing some far right policies and politicians. Among the socio-economic signals, we can include: the popular backlash against the spread of globalisation; the shift back to nationalism across the EU, which in some countries translates into resentment of outsiders and islamophobia; the growing concerns about large and uncontrolled population movements (e.g. migration and refugee situations); and the negative impacts of the financial crises (e.g. reduction of public and private investment, loss of jobs, increase of poverty and revival of historical controversies polarising society).

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

The impacts of a major EU state electing a neo fascist leader could lead to the rise of new forms of resistance (including wars).

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Immigration
Economic Unemployment
Political Nationalism
Values/Ethical/Cultural Racism

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		The rise in xenophobia; the oppression of minorities (e.g. women) and loss of human rights and civil liberties; the intensification of discrimination and lack of tolerance nationally and regionally.
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The rethinking of the right for political asylum in Europe; the development of national oriented politics.
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Loss of credibility in the democratic system.
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The European Union turning into itself (i.e. reducing trade and cooperation with Asia and other regions, including North America)

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) To promote regional coalitions (inter-ethnic, inter-cultural and inter-faith). To make far-right movements more visible (e.g. including lessons from history in education); To reduce social polarisation in education; To enhance democratic participation and consensus building practices; To provide real and practical solutions to problems such as poverty and inequality; To promote community integration programmes; To recognise specificities of far-right groups; To support existing initiatives fighting intolerance. To avoid radical changes in legislation; To defend minorities law; To use soft power to negotiate with right regimes; To concentrate power within government alliances; To welcome the displaced and dispossessed.
Business actors (incl. SMEs) To promote corporate social responsibility; To research into integration models. To welcome the displaced.
Academic/Research sector To promote research on mass media, political discourse and electoral census analysis; To increase research on the current and future effects of migration; To research the roots of right wing support; To review lessons of authoritarian personalities; To identify and analyse social mechanisms hampering democracy, To explore new ways of addressing inequalities and delivering social change; To understand existing legal frameworks and explore future possibilities of changing of the ‘rules of the game’ in emergency situations (e.g. limiting the power of a globally dangerous government). To research corruption in business growth.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Coexistence and conflicts
Governance and trust in democracy
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.