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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Major Volcanic Eruption(s)

version: 9 / updated: 2013-06-29
id: #1984 / version id: #1798
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

David Alexander , "CESPRO", Interviewed by MIoIR. And Nature (2012) - http://www.nature.com/news/researchers-monitor-volcanic-activity-at-santorini-1.11043

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Major Volcanic Eruption(s)

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Possible danger from lesser known, although very large volcanoes under the sea (e.g. in Santorini island, Greece). Italy’s biggest volcano, Marsili, is also under the sea. It is not active but it has very long slopes and these are unstable, possible slope collapse could lead to tsunami. Highly occupied coast not far away – this could potentially be a serious disaster. Were this to erupt, earthquakes and tsunamis would follow. There is also an under sea volcano in the Caribbean – were this to erupt – this would have effect on both sides of the Atlantic – cities like New York.

Keywords

Volcanoes, disasters, volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunamies

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

According to Nature (2012), "the largest submerged caldera in the world, Santorini last erupted in 1950 and had been relatively quiet until early 2011, when small earthquakes started to rattle the islands. The region remained fitful throughout 2011, and measurements using the Global Positioning System (GPS) revealed that the eastern and western edges of the caldera had spread apart by 14 centimetres between January 2011 and January this year. Although the earthquake activity died down early in 2012, the sudden changes have left researchers unsure whether the volcano is resuming its slumber or preparing for a future blast."

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Type of systems affected

Natural Systems - E.g. landscapes, mountains, oceans, rivers, forests, and the like

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)