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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: workshops/meetings » Minimum Flight Distance Introduced

version: 2 / updated: 2010-08-03
id: #929 / version id: #928
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Sivert von Saldern
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Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Workshops/Meetings

iKnow workshop country name

Germany

Workshop date

May 2010

The source of the Wild Card is

Discussion on wild cards in the transport working group.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Minimum Flight Distance Introduced

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Due to environmental reasons and the scarcity of resources, especially of crude oil, a minimum flight distance of 500 kilometres has been introduced in Europe. Thus, travelling to destinations which are less than 500 kilometres away has to be realised by alternative means of transport, such as trains, busses, cars or boats. This wild card has a number of vast impacts on different areas, e.g. it might significantly affect peoples´ travel patterns and could certainly lead to a revival of road and rail usage.

Keywords

Aviation, Flight Distance, Green Transport, Short-Distance Flights, Travel

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Due to environmental reasons and the scarcity of resources, especially of crude oil, a minimum flight distance of 500 kilometres has been introduced in Europe.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
This wild card could lead to immense structural changes in the aviation industry and a change in cost structures, not only with regard to airline providers but manufacturers of airplanes, particularly of small ones, as well. The rising costs for providers would be passed to customers in form of rising ticket prices.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Travelling is getting less comfortable, e.g. short-dated travels due to important events from London to Paris or from Berlin to Frankfurt would not be possible anymore. In business, this circumstance would certainly lead to a rise of conducting video or telephone conference systems.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces 		The wild card might lead to an increase of car and rail usage.

Type of systems affected

Both

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union The wild card might lead to an isolation of some European cities and areas.

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

There are mainly two major weak signals which indicate the prospective occurrence of this wild card scenario. These are the scarcity of fossil resources, basically crude oil which is used to produce kerosene, and the strong environmental pollution which is caused by aviation and which is proven to be particularly exterme on short distance flights. These two factors strongly foster the prevailing discussion on climate change and sustainable development in European governments and soci-eties, which indicate a shift in consumption patterns towards sustainability and responsible con-sumption. Another weak signal is the current construction of new and the upgrade of already exist-ing high speed lines between major traffic conjunctions, e.g. between Cologne and Frankfurt, Co-logne and Paris (via Brussels) or between Stuttgart and Paris.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Social cohesion and diversity
Energy security/dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Regional development

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.