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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: scientists/researchers » Molecular manufacturing turns into the next industrial revolution

version: 1 / created: 2010-07-14
id: #909 / version id: #909
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Scientists/researchers (incl. reports, plans and statements)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Molecular manufacturing turns into the next industrial revolution

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The old vision of molecular nanotechnology (first introduced by Drexler) materializes. "universal nano-assemblers" or "nanofactories" build objects of practically any arbitrary size and complexity (including copies of themselves) from the molecules up, by using readily-available feedstock molecules (e.g. from garbage) as raw materials. This will mean a new industrial revolution, totally changing manufacturing. All of our material needs are produced at trivial cost, without human labor, and with no waste. Huge economical implications, eliminating scarcity and poverty.

Keywords

Nanotechnology, molecular manufacturing, industry, nano-assemblers, economy

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

"Universal nano-assemblers" or "nanofactories" build all desired objects from the molecules up, by using readily-available molecules (e.g. from garbage) as raw materials, with huge economical implications, eliminating scarcity and poverty.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Huge transformation of the manufacturing industry abd the economy.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Drastic changes in cosumption patterns
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
New, totally different, manufacturing infrastructures. Widely distributed "home nanofactories", similar to today's home printing.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Much less pollution, all products 1oo% recycled.
Feature 7: security and defence
Much less depenndance on special raw materials for manufacturing.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Advances in "bottom-up" techniques in nanotechnology

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Work-Life balance and mental health
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Urban and rural dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Transport (including aeronautics)
Security
Research infrastructures
Science in society

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.