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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Nano cheats... gaining a 'micro' advantage

version: 3 / updated: 2010-11-09
id: #1103 / version id: #766
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 4 - Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials & new production technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Nanosciences and converging sciences

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
ASMENA

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Nano cheats... gaining a 'micro' advantage

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
High profile athletes are accused of using performance enhancing nano drugs that are undetectable. There is a backlash from sporting authorities and the 'professional' sport is deemed nonsense. The effects (recreationally and financially) on society are catastrophic as the economy is hit hard and the public lose interest in sporting activities increasing obesity.

Keywords

performance enhancing drugs, undetectable, obesity,

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

High profile athletes are accused of using undetectable performance enhancing nano drugs - 'professional' sport is deemed nonsense. Economy is hit hard and the public lose interest in sporting activities increasing obesity.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Sports equipment industry will be decimated
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
No more olympics or professional sports contests, events which would have brought people from different countries together are no longer happening
Feature 6: health and quality of life
People no longer taking part in sporting activities - the population will become less healthy and more overweight, resulting in much reduced quality of life.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world whole world stops taking part in sporting activities

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Comments

this wild card would lead to the complete collapse of all professional sporting teams and international sporting events.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social The public will not want people who use drugs to be role models for their children
Economic Professional sporting clubs / athletes see taking performance enhancing drugs as the only way to remain competitive

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Countries become more isolated due to the lack of international sporting events which would bring countries closer together
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		More children will see academic achievement as something to aspire to, due to the absence of sporting heroes
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Public as a whole becomes more overweight and unhealthy due to the lack of any sporting activities

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Make the penalties for dealing / taking these new drugs severe to deter people from taking them
Academic/Research sector Develop ways of detecting these new drugs

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Food security and diet Population becoming more obese due to lack of exercise
Social pathologies & ethics Athletes using performance enhancing drugs

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health Athletes taking performance enhancing drugs and population becoming obese through lack of exercise

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures Developing ways of detecting these new performance enhancing drugs

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Initiating policies which will encourage athletes not to use performance enhancing drugs