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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Nano pills tastier than food...good things don't always come in small packages

version: 2 / updated: 2010-11-08
id: #1092 / version id: #749
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 4 - Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials & new production technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Nanosciences and converging sciences

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
NANOSCALE; NANODIRECT

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Nano pills tastier than food...good things don't always come in small packages

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The food industry, farming and hospitality are all virtually abolished as new nano-pills provide all the required supplements of traditional food. There is a knock on effect to society as families no longer take time to enjoy a dinner together

Keywords

nano-pills, food supplements, food obsolete, farming, hospitality

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

The food industry, farming and hospitality are all virtually abolished as new nano-pills provide all the required supplements of traditional food. There is a knock on effect to society as families no longer take time to enjoy a dinner together

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Decline of of fodd leads to massive unemployment in the farming and hospitality industries, with the creation of a new nano food pill industry
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Families no longer sitting down to dinner leads to the family model breaking down

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		Shifting food trends, vitamen pills, intelligent foods etc

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world Poor less affected unless regime imposed due to cost

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Products on market to replace conventional food

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

Social habits changed but not necessarily universal.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Cheap food and convenience
Technological/Scientific Availability

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Farming and other food industries suffer New indusrty growth
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Farming and food industry collapses
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Maasive changes to land use with knock-on effects Use land for energy crops
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Unforeseen side-effects apparant World hunger/malnutrition abolished

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Monitor situation Invest in research on effects Invest in research on effects Monitor situation Invest in research on effects Invest in research on effects
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Get involved in supply chain
Academic/Research sector Health and environment aand social
Media Be sensible Sensible reporting of effects - proportionate
General public Monitor situation

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change Core issue
Diseases, health and well-being Unknown effect on humans. Domestic animals no longer needed.
Food security and diet Core issue
Work-Life balance and mental health Increased leisure as no food preparion required plus reduced shopping
Economic prosperity/dynamics Step change
Sustainability and climate change Affected by land use changes

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health Unknown
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology Existing industries and land use cahnges
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech. Opportunities for new products
Energy Land for energy crops.
Environment (including Climate Change) Land use cahnges
Transport (including aeronautics) Lower requirement for transporting food.
Social Sciences and Humanities New way of eating

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities Keep tabs on developments

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Policy makers could control uptake

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Major changes will result in new policy requiremnts