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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other IGOs » Neo-tribal wars break in cities and in countryside

version: 1 / created: 2009-09-04
id: #58 / version id: #58
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Tuomo Kuosa
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Other International inter-governmental organisations (e.g. OECD, UNESCO, APEC)

The source of the Wild Card is

Monitor 360 and the Singapore Emerging Strategic Issues Project

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Neo-tribal wars break in cities and in countryside

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
People increasingly affiliate with others having similar values, leadign to polarized communities and decreased levels of tolerance. Eventually we end up to tribal-like situations. People in different parts of a city or blocks don't communicate or understand eachothersd anymore. They have their own schools, restaurants, malls etc. Finally the public authority is unable to control the mistrust any more and the neo-tribal wars between polarized communities break.

Keywords

social polarization, tolerance, neo-tribal war, city life

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 7: security and defence
tribal wars are common, low level of security

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Some parts of certain cities are controlled by gangs already

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social affiliative sorting preasure to similar values in social gropus

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		decrease of tolerance people feel new type of belonging
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		tribal wars in cities

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Urban and rural dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.