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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: workshops/meetings » Nervous Breakdown of Society

version: 1 / created: 2010-08-03
id: #935 / version id: #935
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Sivert von Saldern
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Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Workshops/Meetings

iKnow workshop country name

Germany

Workshop date

May 2010

The source of the Wild Card is

Discussion on wild cards in the science fiction working group.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Nervous Breakdown of Society

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Acceleration of life, sensory overload by the media, pervasive ICT and fierce competition at the work place have led to a dramatic increase of mental illnesses and disorders, a rise in apocalyptic prophecies and conspiracy theories and wide-spread apathy. Attention deficit and hyperactivity disorders become the norm, combined with a general loss of confidence in existing organisations – state, churches, family. The society as a whole is facing a kind of nervous breakdown with subsequent burn-out syndrome.

Keywords

Mental, health, psychiatry, virus, epidemic, burn out syndrome, ADS

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Acceleration of life, sensory overload by the media, pervasive ICT and fierce competition at the work place have led to a dramatic increase of mental illnesses, a rise in apocalyptic prophecies and conspiracy theories and wide-spread apathy.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Organising one’s own daily life becomes an ever more difficult task for a growing number of people. This includes housing and eating - homelessness and malnutrition, both, will probably spread. Apart from that, several stabilising mechanisms are imaginable including a rise of esotericism, a revival of smaller communities re-substituting the global market economy with local barter or even subsistence economies.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
. The number of people with mental illnesses will rise in all age groups. The number of psychiatric clinics and personnel will be insufficient for responding adequately to the never-ending epidemic. Many people will be unable to work, quit their jobs and dropout of family and social life. The pressure on the remaining qualified personnel will therefore increase. The use and abuse of pharmaceuticals and drugs will rise; some drugs will be legalised. The development may accelerate in a self-reinforcing process, the steady stimulus of which coming from self-fulfilling apocalyptic prophecies.
Feature 7: security and defence
In case of a resulting economic collapse, more violence and riots will have to be expected. In general, the belief in state and government is likely to decline.

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

There are several signals warning us about the probability of occurrence of such a wild card. First and foremost, the incidence of mental illnesses and suicide primarily among young people forms a good indicator of a nervous breakdown of society under way. Today’s spread of ADS and ADHS among children are an alarming sign already. Also crime statistics may serve as an indicator and the increase of hate crimes in several European countries is a weak signal already. Additionally, the EU working surveys show a rising number of people working to tight deadlines which is a hint for the stress a large number of people already experience in their working life. Furthermore, the increasing number of non-voters and the spread of local currencies in Europe show that many people have already withdrawn from the political system or the global market economy, respectively.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Governance and trust in democracy
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Work-Life balance and mental health
Economic prosperity/dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Social Sciences and Humanities
Regional development
Science in society

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.