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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » New intelligent species discovered underwater

version: 3 / updated: 2010-11-03
id: #1069 / version id: #1026
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

CAPACITIES: Infrastructures

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Support to new research infrastructures

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
KM3NET-PP LIFEWATCH

Headline

(max. 9 words)

New intelligent species discovered underwater

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
New technological advances in underwater submersivels allow further exploration of the oceans. Rather than searching space for new life forms, it becomes a great shock when a new intelligent species is discovered on the sea bed.

Keywords

technological support, Underwater, Ocean, New life form, Sea Bed, Intelligent, Species

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

New technological advances in underwater submersivels allow further exploration of the oceans. Rather than searching space for new life forms, it becomes a great shock when a new intelligent species is discovered on the sea bed.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
- new commercial market
Feature 2: education and research environment
- increase research on new species
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
- new consumable
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
- who would govern
Feature 6: health and quality of life
-
Feature 7: security and defence
- potential security threat

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		new species discovered with potential to challege makind

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Uncertain

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world global phenomenon

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

- ongoing research into deep ocean exploration - human desire to find new life forms

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social human desire to find other life forms
Environmental Seeking to explore the sea bed for new cultivation opportunites

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		security threat
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		humans no longer dominant species alternative food sources established

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) legislation established regarding new species 'rights' implement legislation
Academic/Research sector ethical processes in place to be used during exploration and research
Media minimise propaganda and sensationalism report acurately

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being risk of new diseases
Ethics and abuse of S&T impact on accepted ethics in the treatment of other species
Social pathologies & ethics radical support/antagonism leading to species fundamentalism
Water security/vulnerability risk of contamination

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health new diseases
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology new opportunities for food culivation
Environment (including Climate Change) risk of contamination and over 'farming'
Security potential global threat

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer if risks are realised sharing information will be paramount to minimising impact
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology potential global risk will need international cooperation

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Research Policy amendments for future Ethical reviews