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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Noiseless Aviation

version: 6 / updated: 2011-01-27
id: #1527 / version id: #84
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Cornelia Daheim
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Sivert von Saldern
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 7 - Transport (including aeronautics)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

AAT: The greening of air transport

Uploaded reports, images or pictures related to the Wild Card

File name File type File size
Noiseless Aviation.jpg image 52990 open

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Noiseless Aviation

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
New technologies such as smart high lift devices and flow control systems enable noiseless aviation. The air traffic rises, especially in urban areas, due to deregulation of airport restrictions such as the ban on night flights. Vast increase of CO2 emissions ensues.

Keywords

noiseless aviation, high lift devices, flow control, air traffic, deregulation

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

New technologies such as smart high lift devices and flow control systems enable noiseless aviation. The air traffic rises, especially in urban areas, due to deregulation of airport restrictions such as the ban on night flights. Vast increase of CO2

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Logistics might profit from the deregulation of airport restriction.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
There will be more flexibility concerning the flight schedule
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Health profits on the one hand as the noise pollution decreases but suffers on the other hand as of air pollution worsens.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

research projects on noise reduction of airplanes

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social residents being disturbed by the noise pollution
Technological/Scientific technological breakthroughs
Economic companies profiting from higher air traffic

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		less noise pollution
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		higher air pollution due to more air traffic higher flexibility for freight and passenger transport

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) possibly agree on a common regulation on airport regulation not necessarily loosen airport regulations due to noise reduction
Academic/Research sector further research on noiseless aviation

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Globalization vs. localization
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Transport (including aeronautics)

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Increasing numbers of flight passengers and goods traffic on airports demand for redesign and modification of airport concepts and airport management.