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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Nuclear incident

version: 5 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1874 / version id: #1874
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Jack SMITH, Foresight Synergy Network, MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Nuclear incident

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Such as a dirty bomb, would be a big challenge and be both a wild card and a major reorder of the equilibrium. It is such an undesirable thing, no one wants to face the prospect. Europe has never had an active bomb or dirty bomb to my knowledge. That would be a very strong wild card and a grand challenge at the same time.

Keywords

nuclear, disaster, energy,

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Energy security/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Nuclear research

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)