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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » One the European Union should strongly consider is that global warming is perfect

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1909 / version id: #1909
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Oliver SPARROW, Challenge Forum, interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

One the European Union should strongly consider is that global warming is perfect

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
By that I mean everything has an absorption curve. Imagine you have a clear glass of water and you put in a drop of ink and it becomes darker, and you keep doing that until it is completely black and then adding more in does not make any difference. Well, carbon dioxide does indeed absorb infrared and does indeed produce effects in low concentration, but it is now saturated and adding more won’t make any difference. There are very expensive schemes being set up, like the Mediterranean interconnect, that will be a waste of money. I am not saying this is true, but if it were, the science community and the policy community would be discredited for a generation.

Keywords

global warming, climate changing, CO2, environment, ecology

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Education dynamics
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Social pathologies & ethics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.