quick scan
scan for   wiwe wi we advanced
WI-WE Progress
Progress: 69.93%   WWI-WE Version: 4
0 mandatory questions pending
26 questions total
17 questions answered
17 questions completed
9 questions pending
Popular WI-WE Tags
Analysis Back

Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Pandemic causing significant deaths in G20

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1897 / version id: #1897
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Martin Sharp, Liverpool John Moores University, interviewed by RTC North

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Pandemic causing significant deaths in G20

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
There would not only be a huge financial and societal impact but also a “backlash” against science’s failure to prevent the deaths. There could be an initial boost in vaccines and immunology research, but then the research base itself could be depleted and large scale societal unrest coupled with financial problems will have significant impact. Mass deaths could lead to a breakdown of trust in science damaging the science base.

Keywords

Health, pandemia, financial crisis, science, innovation

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Social pathologies & ethics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.