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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Personal air transportation ("flying cars") becomes widespread and commonly used by most people

version: 1 / created: 2010-04-07
id: #771 / version id: #771
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 7 - Transport (including aeronautics)

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

AAT: Piloting the air transport of the future

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Personal air transportation ("flying cars") becomes widespread and commonly used by most people

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Pilotless personal airplanes ("flying cars") are developed based on UAV technologies, and appropriate computerised air traffic control is developed as well, leading to safe personal air transportation systems that does not require piloting skills and is trusted and commonly used by most citizens, providing a useful, envirinmentally friendly alternative to today's private cars.

Keywords

tranportation, aviation, flying cars, personal plane, PATS

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Pilotless personal airplanes, ("flying cars") are developed based on UAV technologies, and appropriate computerised air traffic control is developed as well, leading to safe personal air transportation systems that does not require piloting skills

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Revolution in transportation systems
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
New market for personal aiiplanes ("flying car") and supporting products. New lifestiles enablled by new opportunities for "3-D travel", new freedom of movement in urban areas and short/mid-range air travel for tourism and business.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Advanced computerised control of massive trafic of "flying cars".
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Globalistion of personal air transport systems (PATS)
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Quality of life greatly improves thanks to more efficient, convenient and safe transportation.
Feature 7: security and defence
New challenges to safety and security of PATS

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Historical parallels

Development and proliferation of private cars

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Several experimental models of "flying cars" have been built. There are new conceptual exploratory projects (including in FP7)

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Demand for free, flexible and safe travel
Technological/Scientific Advancements in autonomous flight and automatic aviation control
Economic Huge expenses caused by inefficient ground transportation (traffic jams, accidents etc)
Environmental Demand for less polluting trasportation

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Distrust of users because of failures or accidents
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Massive change in the preferred modes of tranportation

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Development of prototypes, followed by large scale tests
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Developing "flying car" demonstrators, and accessory equipment
Academic/Research sector Research projects to explore the technological challenges and social / environmental implications