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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Privatization of water supplies ends

version: 1 / created: 2009-10-19
id: #197 / version id: #197
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Tuomo Kuosa
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 2 - Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Increased sustainability of all production systems (agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture)

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Privatization of water supplies ends

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
UN decides that clean water is a basic right of all people and the privatization of water supplies ends now. All countries commit to the decision.

Keywords

water quality; water supply, human rights; UN decision, solidarity, privatisation of water

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Some water companies go out of business
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Clean water becomes a basic commodity aroung the world
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Basic human rights are reached better globally. UN rises its global influence power and strengthens its brand
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Volume of extreme poverty, deceases and child mortality decrease in developing countries
Feature 7: security and defence
End of privatization may lead to lack of water supply – someone has to finance the pumping, purifying and distribution

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Historical parallels

Decision to end slavery, UN human right declarations and operationalisation

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Ultimate Weak signal behind the direct WI and ultimate triggering WI: Some private water supply companies have tried to establish cartels or monopolies in order to rise the prizes. Ultimate drivers behind the drivers and stakeholders: The basic nature of human beings and cultural evolution. People don’t consider it legitimate to keep poor people away from national water resources, because of greed of a few. Clean water is understood as a commodity of all citizens in the same way as air. Direct Stakeholders: Poor people in developing countries, governments and concern people in developed countries, international human rights NGOs, UN/WHO Direct Drivers: UN human rights declaration, pursuit of governments and concern people in developed countries, pursuit of international human rights NGOs.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

- Volume of extreme poverty, deceases and child mortality decrease in developing countries - Basic human rights are reached better globally - UN rises its global influence power and strengthens its brand - End of privatization may lead to lack of water supply – someone has to finance the pumping, purifying and distribution - Increasing population growth in developing countries. Due to it, in a long run we may get even more people under the povertyline.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Direct Stakeholders: Poor people in developing countries, governments and concern people in developed countries, international human rights NGOs, UN/WHO Direct Drivers: UN human rights declaration, pursuit of governments and concern people in developed countries, pursuit of international human rights NGOs.
Political Direct Wild card: UN gets a new Secretary from a developing country who has personal experiences of lack of clean water and abuse of basic human right. She rises the basic rights to clean water and sanitation into focal point of UN.
Values/Ethical/Cultural Direct Triggering WI: A criminal group takes over all water supplies in one country. They rise the prize of clean water too high for average people. Ultimate drivers behind the drivers and stakeholders: The basic nature of human beings and cultural evolution. People don’t consider it legitimate to keep poor people away from national water resources, because of greed of a few. Clean water is understood as a commodity of all citizens in the same way as air.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		- End of privatization may lead to lack of water supply – someone has to finance the pumping, purifying and distribution - Volume of extreme poverty, deceases and child mortality decrease in developing countries - Basic human rights are reached better globally - UN rises its global influence power and strengthens its brand
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		- Increasing population growth in developing countries. Due to it, in a long run we may get even more people under the povertyline.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Pursuit member states to acknowledge the problem. Select a new secretary who wants to grasp the issue. Supporting and operationalising UN human rights declarations Supporting and operationalising UN human rights declarations

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Food security and diet
Social exclusion & poverty
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security Risk of global mass migration decreases

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Not very