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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other » Radical Transparency by Wikileaks

version: 1 / created: 2011-02-02
id: #1556 / version id: #1556
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Jari Kaivo-oja
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Jari Kaivo-oja
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Other, please specify:   MIT Technology Review

The source of the Wild Card is

MIT Technology Review, Web: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/pontin/26314/

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Radical Transparency by Wikileaks

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
How do we begin to make sense of Wikileaks, the Internet-based organization that publishes the secrets of governments and companies? What Wikileaks is, and whether it is good or bad for civil society, has become disputed terrain; and what has been written about Wikileaks has revealed more about the authors' feelings for the state and corporations than it has shed light upon the organization's innovations. The consequences of Wikileaks are still open and unknown.

Keywords

Radicalism, transparency, politics, society, journalism, media distribution

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

In recent times, Wikileaks has published a lot of confidental news meterial. Many governments has found secrets published by Wikileaks. Radical transparency is becoming a reality of policymaking.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2015

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Transparency is a growing requirement of ethical marketing and branding. This trend can turn to be radical transparency.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Radical transparency may have direct and indirect impacts on political elites of the world.
Feature 7: security and defence
Radical transparency is seen to be a threat for security and defence forces.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		Transparency requirement changes to radical transparency requirement

Historical parallels

See "Julian Assagne and the Computer Conspiracy", Web: http://zunguzungu.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/julian-assange-and-the-computer-conspiracy-%E2%80%9Cto-destroy-this-invisible-government%E2%80%9D/

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world Radical transparency requirements

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Early indicators in 2006.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Comments

Transformation from mere transparency to radical transparency.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Open society and transparency
Technological/Scientific Freedom
Economic Freedom
Environmental Freedom
Political Requirements concerning the openess of policymaking
Values/Ethical/Cultural Freedom of communication

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks for political and economic elites More open political culture
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks for political and economic elites More open political culture
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks for political and economic elites More open political culture
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risks for political and economic elites More open political culture

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Analyse the issue Analyse the issue Analyse the issue Development of communication strategies and policies Development of communication strategies and policies Development of communication strategies and policies
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Analyse the issue Development of communication strategies and policies
Academic/Research sector Analyse the issue Development of communication strategies and policies
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) Analyse the issue Development of communication strategies and policies
Media Analyse the issue Development of communication strategies and policies
General public Analyse the issue Development of communication strategies and policies

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change Critical new information and knowledge
Coexistence and conflicts Critical new information and knowledge
Social cohesion and diversity Critical new information and knowledge
Economic prosperity/dynamics Critical new information and knowledge
Globalization vs. localization Critical new information and knowledge
Innovation dynamics Disruptive innovations
Techno-security, hazard & risk Critical new information and knowledge

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies Critical new information and knowledge
Social Sciences and Humanities Critical new information and knowledge

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Critical new information and knowledge

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Wikileaks have a potential to change political culture, globally.