quick scan
scan for   wiwe wi we advanced
WI-WE Progress
Progress: 87.01%   WWI-WE Version: 1
0 mandatory questions pending
26 questions total
21 questions answered
21 questions completed
5 questions pending
Popular WI-WE Tags
Analysis Back

Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: workshops/meetings » Rise of Africa

version: 1 / created: 2010-09-15
id: #985 / version id: #985
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Martin Fatun
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Martin Fatun
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Workshops/Meetings

iKnow workshop country name

Czech Republic

Workshop date

March 2010

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Rise of Africa

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
In case of stopping civil wars and lethal epidemics, fair land distribution and increase of education Africa may become important player on the economic map of the world. There is enormous wealth of raw materials and natural resources, big labour force potential and big consumer potential. Therefore the Black Continent is in view finder of China and other emerging economies today. Contemporary problems of Africa seams to be results of rule of Europeans in colonial times. However still there are possibilities for European countries to help Africa and to participate in its economic growth.

Keywords

Africa, security, economic growth, self-reliance

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
The successful strategy supporting self-reliance of Africa can cause temporary disadvantage to some multinational companies benefiting from up to date chaos and corruption. However it is possible to suppose that the future global advantages of such development will generously compensate current disadvantages.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
From European point of view the close cooperation with stronger Africa can help the European economy to succeed in tough row material resources war with emerging countries as China or India.
Feature 7: security and defence
The consolidation of Africa will weaken European immigration from Africa and can save money spend to deal with this problem today.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces 		Contemporary problems of Africa seams to be results of rule of Europeans in colonial times. However still there are possibilities for European countries to help Africa and to participate in its economic growth.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social War with poverty
Economic Need of raw naterials for European industry
Environmental Environment protection
Political Security of the Europe
Values/Ethical/Cultural Workin off Europa's debt

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Europe may be drawn into conflicts between Africian's states or tribes stronger self-reliance of Africa, partnership with Europe
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		potential conflict with China increase in education, stabilizing of environmental problems, efficient use of land and efficient use of energy resources
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		stabilization of economic growth, increase in security (as well for Europe) and increase of political influence
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		permanent seat in UNSC for Africa

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) ensure environment protection; support return of emigrants to Africa; funding for research institutes in Africa; orientation of economies on higher-added value sectors; joint strategy of African status; attraction of new investments; prepare contents to be delivered in different languages; dissemination of local ideas and traditions to foster the social acknowledgement; meetings to align needs of various parties ensure environment protection; stabilization of economies and ensuring continual GDP growth; attract brains; join the free trade zone; relationships beyond economic or security outcomes
Business actors (incl. SMEs) outsourcing of production to Africa; sustainable investments; encouragement of business interactions global shift of production; new processes derived form changes in raw materials cost/prices
Academic/Research sector environment protection; ensure a technology for self-sustainability; research on policy impacts and consequences; research on the key factors for improvement; use of “control system theory” form ICT research to understand the complex systems and effects on policy settings environment protection; research on sociological and political consequences; specify key research priorities; ensure a technology for self-sustainability

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being
Food security and diet
Energy security/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.