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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Seismicity in Europe – a major earthquake

version: 5 / updated: 2011-10-21
id: #1797 / version id: #1797
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

David Alexander , "CESPRO", Interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Seismicity in Europe – a major earthquake

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Parts in Europe where Seismicity is not very well known, for example N-Europe – Britain. There are places though with some seismicity – to date smaller earthquakes have not done anything. However, were these to hit sensitive places like a nuclear power plant things would be different. Also, earthquakes can lead to tsunamis.

Keywords

seismicity, disasters

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Type of systems affected

Natural Systems - E.g. landscapes, mountains, oceans, rivers, forests, and the like

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 3: important for the European Union

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)