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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Significant Demographic change , people living longer , change affecting demand on healthcare

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1901 / version id: #1901
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Neil Mundy, Ellingham Associates, interviewed by RTC North

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Significant Demographic change , people living longer , change affecting demand on healthcare

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
If demographic change created overwhelming demand on healthcare through an ageing population, more home based personalised care, higher hospital admissions, increased levels of Dementia, and dramatic resource implications of treating morbidity. It would certainly help if Europe concentrated on developing methods of prevention, education on diet and exercise to encourage social responsibility

Keywords

ageing, health, demography, morbidity, social responsability

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Significant Demographic change , people living longer , change affecting demand on healthcare - Ageing population, more home based personalised care, increased levels of Dementia

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Education dynamics
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Work-Life balance and mental health
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.