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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other » Silent Seas

version: 1 / created: 2011-02-01
id: #1545 / version id: #1545
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Jari Kaivo-oja
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Jari Kaivo-oja
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Other, please specify:   Scientific American

The source of the Wild Card is

Scientific American. December 2010. Article "Silent Seas", p. 80.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Silent Seas

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Today 52% of global fishing stock is fully exploited, 28% is overexploited and 20% is moderately or lightly exploited. We are emptying the oceansof fish faster than most species can repopulate themselves. International waters are poorly policed.

Keywords

Oceans, fisheries, collapse, fishing stocks, regulations

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

The world´s fisheries continue to collapse although smart contrils could help.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Illegal fishing raises the catch totals higher.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Fish food availability is not guaranteed in the long run.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Sea policy should be stronger in the world.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
The collapse of fisheries would be very harmful for human health and quality of life in many regions of the world.
Feature 7: security and defence
This wild card would decrease global food security dramatically.

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		Today 52% of global fishing stock is fully exploited, 28% is overexploited and 20% is moderately or lightly exploited. We are emptying the oceansof fish faster than most species can repopulate themselves.

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

This is expected result of a long development.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Economic Fisheries areas are closed too late.
Environmental Stock of fisheries decreases.
Political International waters are poorly policed.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Food security problems, prices of food increases
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Food security problems, prices of food increases
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Food security problems, prices of food increases
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Food security problems, prices of food increases

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Tighter fisheries management policies Tighter fisheries management policies Tighter fisheries management policies Emergency food policies Emergency food policies Emergency food policies
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Tighter fisheries management policies Emergency food policies
Academic/Research sector Tighter fisheries management policies Emergency food policies
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) Tighter fisheries management policies
Media Tighter fisheries management policies
General public Tighter fisheries management policies Emergency food policies

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being Food shortages and malnutrition
Food security and diet Food security decreases.
Water security/vulnerability Collapse of world fisheries

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology Food security problems increasing, biodiversity problems etc.
Regional development Food market problems for many seaside regions

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example. Needed to avoid the collapse
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology Needed to avoid the collapse

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Needed to avoid the collapse

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Globally this Wild Card is having high policy relevancy.