quick scan
scan for   wiwe wi we advanced
WI-WE Progress
Progress: 88.40%   WWI-WE Version: 3
0 mandatory questions pending
26 questions total
22 questions answered
22 questions completed
4 questions pending
Popular WI-WE Tags
Analysis Back

Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Smal-scale nuclear power to meet private energy demands

version: 3 / updated: 2010-06-22
id: #821 / version id: #772
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ondrej Valenta
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ondrej Valenta
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Smal-scale nuclear power to meet private energy demands

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Countries, cities, villages and corporations turn to micro scale nuclear reactors in order to meet the energy demands which are otherwise not reached. The world is running out of oil and it all the time faces more and more strict CO2 emission limits. The final trigger is the new temporal cease of Russian energy supply to EU markets.

Keywords

nuclear power, small-scale reactors, deconcentration, energy, sufficiency

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

With the development in nuclear research, small-scale reactors are built to supply energy to cities, regions, as well as large corporations.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
Independence of large businesses on centralized energy sources. Breakdown of odl, traditional industries based on processing coal and oil.
Feature 2: education and research environment
New research opportunities in the field of nuclear research with a higher demand of highly qualified professionals
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
There would be no need to maintain a pan-european energy transmission system, since the energy sources would be very decentralized and localized nearly in every region
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Enhanced geopolitical independence of the EU
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Considerable improvement of natural environment leading to healthier lives of population
Feature 7: security and defence
Increased eneergy security and independence of the EU on countries exporting fossil fuels

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels) 		Current strives for a higher energy independence of European states is reached

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

New discoveries in nuclear research (new generation reactors) New discoveries in related science fields (material research, ICT, ...) Solution of the radioactive waste issue reached

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific New discoveries in various science field related to nuclear research, and in nuclear research itself
Political New legislation allowing a mass production and localization of such reactors
Values/Ethical/Cultural Wide public acceptance of nuclear power

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		potential misuse of the nuclear power
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		complete energy independence of regions and countries
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		complete energy independence of regions and countries
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		complete energy independence of regions and countries

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Innovation dynamics
Urban and rural dynamics
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Security
Nuclear research
Regional development
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.