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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Small scale nuclear power to private energy demands

version: 1 / created: 2009-09-22
id: #148 / version id: #148
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Tuomo Kuosa
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 5 - Energy

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Knowledge for energy policy-making

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Small scale nuclear power to private energy demands

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Countries, cities, villages and corporations turn to micro scale nuclear reactors in order to meet the energy demands which are otherwise not reached. The world is running out of oil, and we face all the time more and more strict CO2 emission limits. The final trigger is the new temporal cease of Russian energy supply to EU markets.

Keywords

nuclear power, reactor, energy, demands, micro scale

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
corporations and communities sell nuclear energy.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
there is more dependency to local energy supplier in comparison to national energy supplier.
Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
energy grid becomes decentralized, safety of small scale nuclear technology advances significantly.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
dependency on Russian energy and oil in general decreases. Oil states will suffer, and there will be increasingly global anxiety.
Feature 7: security and defence
small scale nuclear power becomes a good target for terrorists. Energy supplies will be guaranteed in EU.

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Historical parallels

small scale nuclear weapons developed in US. Small nuclear reactors in submarines

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific New inventions and innovations of efficient, safe and cheap small scale reactors
Economic emergence of markets of cheap small scale reactors for corporations cities and municipals Nuclear power becomes a good way to sell energy with good profit.
Political political energy supply game played by Russia EC’s decision to finance nuclear power R&D

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The wild cards could lead to misuse of the reactors by terrorists, Local nuclear catastrophy.
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The wild cards could lead citizens to new type widespread dependency of those who own the small reactors.
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		The wild cards could lead to widespread dispute over nuclear wastes, cease of the use of the reactors as we run out of Uranium if the use is vast in global scale. This rises the question, what should we do with the old abandoned reactors?

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) EC could change the laws, and fund nuclear R&D, and enhance utilization of it in private sector. EC could take precautionary actions on the way the information should be handled. Media has a key role in effecting the values of people. Governments could change the laws, and fund nuclear R&D, and enhance utilization of it in private sector. Governments could take precautionary actions on the way the information should be handled.
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Corporations and communities can start selling energy to their neighbourhood
Media Media has a key role in effecting the values of people.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics This is dealing with the energy vulnerability
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy Nuclear R&D
Environment (including Climate Change)
Security
Nuclear research

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
It is very relevant