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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other EU » Solar panels becomes the global primary source of energy by 2030

version: 3 / updated: 2009-11-25
id: #373 / version id: #370
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
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Last changed by: Tuomo Kuosa
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Other European Union institutions (e.g. Parliament, Council, etc.)

The source of the Wild Card is

Project Acronym: ROBUST DSC, Project Reference: 212792

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Solar panels becomes the global primary source of energy by 2030

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The problem of solar cells have been their relativelly short lifetime, payback time and costs of establishing a system. The FP 7 project ROBUST DSC is studying and developing Dye Sensitized Solar Cells (DSC) with long lifetime and increased module efficiencies (7% target). In parallel with this objective, more fundamental research, employing new materials and device configurations, will target increasing the efficiency of labscale DSC to 14%. Progress on labscale devices will be fed directly into module development. The approach of the FP 7 project is based on the use of innovative low-cost materials, scalable manufacturing techniques, predictive device models and in-and outdoor lifetime testing. The project researchers anticipates that this project will result in the demonstration of a new scalable, low cost, photovoltaic technology. If we add to this the estimation that a relativelly small area of Sahara covered with new generation solar panels could produce all electricity that is needed in Europe, we can extrapolate the idea to the following wild card: EU becomes the global energy net exporter by 2030. Due to many breakthroughs in energy production, especially in solar panels and cells such as Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and due to new political and economical energy production, ownership and supply treaties between EU and North-Africa states, EU is able to cover all its electricity demand by Sahara’s solar energy, and is able to deliver much electricity to many neighbouring countries by 2030.

Keywords

energy, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells (DSC), solar cell, efficiency, electricity

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

EU becomes the global energy net exporter by 2030. EU and North-Africa states, EU is able to cover all its electricity demand by Sahara’s solar energy, and is able to deliver much electricity to many neighbouring countries by 2030.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
European energy cluster would get a boost
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
Cheeper energy for consumers
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
New tensions between former oil producing countries and net consumers
Feature 7: security and defence
New tensions between former oil producing countries and net consumers

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Solar cells development
Political energy needs

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Huge markets
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Fight over the ownership of the solar panel area and the transfering cables Smaller dependency on oil, nuclear force and russian energy

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Finance the project and start the negotiations with North-Africa

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Energy security/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Techno-security, hazard & risk
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Security
Nuclear research