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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: magazines » Space war

version: 3 / updated: 2010-12-22
id: #1278 / version id: #1218
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Specialised magazines (e.g. National Geographic)

The source of the Wild Card is

"Is a New Space Weapon Race Heating Up?" http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/space-war-weapons-heats-up-100505.html

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Space war

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
A military confrontation takes place in space, using space weapons such as anti-satellite lasers and missiles, space-planes, etc.

Keywords

Space, security, war, defense, weapons

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

A military confrontation takes place in space, using space weapons such as anti-satellite lasers and missiles, space-planes, etc.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 4: technology and infrastructure
Damage to satellites will disrupt critical systems
Feature 7: security and defence
New kind of war

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Launching of space-based lasers or other weapons designed to operate in space. Disruption of GPS signals.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific Development of new space-based lasers or other weapons designed to operate in space
Political Escalating conflicts

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Escalation of military conflicts, disruption of satellite communications/navigation

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Economic prosperity/dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Space
Security
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.