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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: scientists/researchers » Sudden global energy crisis

version: 1 / created: 2010-04-08
id: #776 / version id: #776
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ondrej Valenta
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Last changed by: Ondrej Valenta
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Scientists/researchers (incl. reports, plans and statements)

The source of the Wild Card is

Ivo Vasa, Nuclear Research Institute Rez, Czech Republic

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Sudden global energy crisis

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The oil crisis in the 1970s demonstrated how serious the impact of a sudden black-out of oil supply on advanced economies can be. As a result, e.g. France oriented its energy sector to be sustained by a nuclear energy. If this crisis happened again, it would still show persisting dependence of the advanced economies on oil and gas; it would yet show the potential of a nuclear energy, as it is relatively insensitive on development of fossil fuels prices at the world market.

Keywords

energy, crisis, global, fossil fuels, nuclear energy

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Historical parallels

the 1973 oil crisis

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

conflict (political, war, economic) involving one or more major exporters of oil continuing global climate change

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Energy
Security
Nuclear research