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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Suddenly algae production become the globally accepted and heavily subsidised way to fight the climate change

version: 1 / created: 2009-12-17
id: #591 / version id: #591
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Tuomo Kuosa
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 5 - Energy

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Renewable electricity generation

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Suddenly algae production become the globally accepted and heavily subsidised way to fight the climate change

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
By mid-2010’s scientists in Europe discover new algae species from Mediterranean Sea which can be used very efficiently and very broadly in biofuel production. Soon after that the scientists discover a new scientific principle for producing huge quantities of cheap biofuel from the new algae species as well. Then international political leaders and organisations realize that algae is, not only a cheap and carbon neutral form of energy production, but also a good way to carbon caption form atmosphere. This is realized by customers around the world as well, which leads to huge demand on algae biofuel. Suddenly algae production become the globally accepted and heavily subsidised way to fight the climate change.

Keywords

algae, energy, biofuel, climate change, carbon caption

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

By mid-2010’s scientists discover new algae species which can be used very efficiently and very broadly in biofuel production. Suddenly algae production become the globally accepted and heavily subsidised way to fight the climate change.

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 5: politics and global affairs
Algae becomes globally accepted way to fight the climate change

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		biofuels emergence

Historical parallels

oil's emergence

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Desirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Algae R&D increases

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

affective filters (emotions, anxiety, self-doubt)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific discoveries of new species

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		bioterrorism clean water, cheap biofuel and electricity

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) R&D

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Energy security/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Energy
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Security
Regional development

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
yes