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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » Super volcanic eruption

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1891 / version id: #1891
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Manus Hayne, University of Lancaster, RTC North

Headline

(max. 9 words)

Super volcanic eruption

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Considering the whole of Yellowstone (US National Park) is basically a dormant volcano, can you imagine the chaos that would resign if this became active? There could, and probably would, be catastrophic impacts on society, ecology and the environment.

Keywords

environmental disaster, ecology, disasters

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Natural event (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, asteroid)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.