quick scan
scan for   wiwe wi we advanced
WI-WE Progress
Progress: 93.75%   WWI-WE Version: 3
0 mandatory questions pending
26 questions total
24 questions answered
24 questions completed
2 questions pending
Popular WI-WE Tags
Analysis Back

Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » The bionic nano...or the bubonic nano?

version: 3 / updated: 2010-08-24
id: #976 / version id: #757
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Anthony Walker
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Anthony Walker
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 4 - Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials & new production technologies

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Mastering nano-scale complexity in materials

Optional reference/s to FP7 project/s

Use the following format: Project Acronym (Project Reference No.). Use commas if more than one project is associated to this Wild Card, for example: ALFA-BIRD (213266), SAFAR (213374), LAPCAT-II (211485)
NANOTOUGH

Headline

(max. 9 words)

The bionic nano...or the bubonic nano?

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
The quest for enhancing the human body continues with the enhancement of the bioavailability of nutrients. The body rejects these nutrients and beneficial micro-organisms in the body are killed -ff by 'enhanced nutrients' leading to uncontrolled widespread illness

Keywords

Disease, human body enhancement, nutrient enhancement, plague

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Enhancing the human body continues with the enhancement of the bioavailability of nutrients. The body rejects these nutrients and beneficial micro-organisms in the body are killed -ff by 'enhanced nutrients' leading to uncontrolled widspread illness

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 6: health and quality of life
Potential world wide epidemic of deadly disease(s), causing suffering and death to millions

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc. 		Unplanned consequence of initial positive breakthrough

Historical parallels

Similar to when pregnant women took thalidamide to reduce morning sickness, resulting in large number of deformities in children.

Type of systems affected

Natural Systems - E.g. landscapes, mountains, oceans, rivers, forests, and the like

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 2: important for a particular world region Most likely to have an effect in the developed world (due to initial expense).

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Increased frequency of the common cold/flu - increased depndency on need for antibiotics for illness that would normally be dealt with by an immune system in a healthy body. Constant quest by humans to achieve the 'perfect' body (in temrs of appearance, performance etc...)

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Quest for perfect human body - increased demand for 'new' ways to achieve this.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		Illness causes worry of pandamic and initiates panic. Society unable to work and economy begins to suffer.
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Risk of a geographical populations inability to cope with widespread illness. Opportunity for pharma industry to develop a 'cure' / 'antidote'.
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests) 		Whole society unable to work.

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Outlaw use of technology that caused illness
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Develop 'cure' / 'antidote' and more flexible working practices
Academic/Research sector Create a bank/database of antibiotics
Media Warning of risks of taking enhancements Limited propoaganda / responsible reporting of true risks (rather than sensationalising the stories)
General public Encourage community spirit to assist each other / work together

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Diseases, health and well-being New disease(s) leading to potential global pandemic
Food security and diet Nutrients have replaced typical culture of food

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Security Outcome could be exploited by terrorists

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer When risks realised, sharing information is crucial to minimise effect/damage (if possible)

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc. 		Researchers and policy makers should be aware of common goal (researchers should make policy makers aware of risks as develeoped)