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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » The collapse of a major nation in a geopolitical area that is already under great pressure

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1882 / version id: #1882
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Joe RAVETZ, University of Manchester, INterviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

The collapse of a major nation in a geopolitical area that is already under great pressure

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
So Pakistan, Iran or Russia. Each of these major nations with large populations is already under huge pressure from internal dissent, terrorist groups, breakaway groups and financial pressure, etc. We can imagine dramatic possible impacts. Pakistan falls to pieces and becomes more of a war zone than it is already. Pressure on Afghanistan, Iran, etc. then escalates and spreads, so there is social, economic and environmental catastrophe and instability, which spreads to Russia, India etc. Maybe the Chinese move into the area, because they are the most powerful player, and take over with military law and millions of soldiers. The shape of the world changes very suddenly.

Keywords

collapse, social, economic security, warfare, geopolitics

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 2: important for a particular world region
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Crime and terrorism
Education dynamics
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Governance and trust in democracy
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.