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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: foresight/futures » The last CCTV Camera is pulled down

version: 2 / updated: 2010-12-09
id: #1235 / version id: #1234
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Rafael Popper
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Rafael Popper
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished archived

Source of inspiration

Foresight/Futures work (e.g. EFP, Millennium Project, WFS, WFSF, UK Sigma Scan)

The source of the Wild Card is

Freeman, O. and Watson, R. (2009) The Bookends Scenario, New South Wales: Public Library Services.

Headline

(max. 9 words)

The last CCTV Camera is pulled down

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
After serious and systematic cases of privacy invasion and use of CCTV infrastructure by hackers and terrorists, the UN and other international bodies declare CCTV systems a major security threat.

Keywords

CCTV, security, surveillance, hackers, privacy

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

Concerns about privacy and security lead to global ban of CCTV systems

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2050+

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 7: security and defence
Return to traditional surveillance practices.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.

Classification

Mixed

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country UK
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

growing frequency of male CCTV operators using the system to monitor women.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Comments

End of CCTV

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1 		please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Growing concerns about privacy

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
immediate
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests) 		End of Big Brother society fears

Potential stakeholders' actions

before
it occurs 		after
it occurs
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Explore alternative surveillance models

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
Need for research on alternative surveillance systems