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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » The occurrence of a devastating environmental catastrophe in the area of the European Union

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1892 / version id: #1892
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Mark O. SELLENTHIN, ZWE – Centre for European Economic Research, interviewed by Z_PUNKT

Headline

(max. 9 words)

The occurrence of a devastating environmental catastrophe in the area of the European Union

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
as just happened in the Gulf of Mexico. If such a disaster happened on our shores, this would have dramatic impacts on European societies and economics. A catastrophe similar to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill would even be more dramatic if it happened in the Mediterranean Sea, due to the geographic characteristics of this area. It would lead to extensive financial and economic problems for countries, such as Italy, Spain, etc., to cover the costs resulting from such an environmental catastrophe. In such a grave case it would probably come to a “European solution”, as occurred recently with the European support of Greece and Ireland. This would increase pressure on public budgets and ultimately on social and research policy.

Keywords

environmental disaster, collapse, economical caos, economic security

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Food security and diet
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.