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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » The population bomb

version: 4 / updated: 2011-10-27
id: #1858 / version id: #1858
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Jack SMITH, Foresight Synergy Network, Interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

The population bomb

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
It is a massive shift in the profile of the population – both age and origin – away from traditional patterns. It could be in any number of directions, but render traditional European populations minorities. That would cause some anxiety perhaps in the population and might be a bit of wild card in terms of culture and values. Right now it represents a considerable challenge in how to anticipate the development of the multicultural realities of modern Europe. In Canada, we have been actively thinking about this and accommodating our minorities better. But from the example of France and Paris in the past five years, with the riots and so on, if that happened more prevalently through Europe it would be a major dislocation.

Keywords

ageing population, population shift, culture, values, riots

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A contemporary equivalent of past Wild Cards
(e.g. earthquake, tsunami or, similar to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the USA breaks up into independent countries sometime between 2025-2050, for example)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
institutional filters (rules, laws, regulations)
economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Social cohesion and diversity
Work-Life balance and mental health

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities
Security

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Improving researchers mobility and career development by, for example, realising a single labour market for researchers.
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.