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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: interviews » The seabed is lined with methane hydrate, and if you take the pressure off.

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-18
id: #1912 / version id: #1912
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Wild Card is

Oliver SPARROW, Challenge Forum, interviewed by MIoIR

Headline

(max. 9 words)

The seabed is lined with methane hydrate, and if you take the pressure off.

Description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
We know in the past there have been great belches of methane, followed by a climate spike. The American coastline has had a lot of extra erosion because of extra agricultural production and there could be a landslide. This would move at 200 or 300 miles an hour, causing a major ‘outgassing’ of methane.

Keywords

agriculture, global warming, climate change, ecological disasters, environment

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)

he seabed is lined with methane hydrate, and if you take the pressure off, it turns back to an extremely potent methane gas, and we would be in a pressure cooker

Likelihood

Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:
now-2025

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Both

Classification

Undesirable

Importance

please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Education dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Innovation dynamics
Sustainability and climate change
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Social Sciences and Humanities

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.